Catholic factor overestimated

Seems the president is still holding his own among all Catholic voters.

Most recent polls show that Catholics are about split between President Bush and Kerry. LeMoyne's poll found that 48 percent wanted a new president, compared with 44 percent who were satisfied with Bush. But when the poll pitted Bush against Kerry, 44 percent went for Bush and 40 percent for Kerry.

This is the group of Catholics which Republicans look to hold.

Some conservative Catholic analysts have been predicting for a decade that a small majority of Catholics, led by regular Mass attendees, would begin forming a consistent block vote for Republicans. A 1998 study in Crisis Magazine, for instance, argued that "religiously active Catholics are at last aligning politically with born-again, evangelical Christians." The magazine also predicted sizable Catholic support in 2000 for Bush over Al Gore, which did not materialize.